Republicans in California this year fought in the toughest political environment for our party since 1974. In no cycle since then have our candidates had so many externalities to overcome on their way to Election Day, with the bottom dropping out of the world financial system in October, the summer energy crisis, an incumbent President with approval ratings in the 25% range, and other external factors beyond the control of either party.
Given this environment, how did our candidates perform?
Let’s start with Congress. Unlike states like Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, New York, Connecticut, and many others, California held each of our Republican Congressional seats, including open seats in Northern and Southern California. These results contrast with the predictions Democrats were making to anyone who would listen that Dana Rohrabacher, Brian Bilbray, Dan Lungren and Tom McClintock were all at risk of being defeated. None were.
During the final weeks of the campaign we were all subjected to endless Democrat predictions that they would reach a two-thirds majority in the legislature so they could raise taxes. Another grand plan defeated by Republicans.
In the State Senate, Democrats struck out in three key races. First was the badly mishandled attempted recall of Senator Jeff Denham (R). Rather than pour good money after bad, Democrats were forced to pull the plug on that effort. Then was their failure to run a competitive candidate against Senator Abel Maldonado (R), who holds the most difficult district in the state for a Republican. Finally, Republican Tony Strickland won in the open 19th Senate District with a smart campaign and a strong message.
Despite a huge Obama wave nationally, the Democrats’ only gain was in the Assembly, yet there they also fell short of widely reported predictions. Rather than pick up the six seats they claimed, they got a net of three, all the result of open seats in districts unfavorable to Republicans. The disproportionately higher Democrat turnout in Presidential election years made these districts tougher to win than in a gubernatorial year.
In addition to defeating Democrat plans for a supermajority in the legislature and more seats in Congress, Republicans won some important local government races. In San Diego, Democrat City Attorney Michael Aguirre was defeated by Republican Jan Goldsmith with the strong support of the Republican Party. In Fresno, Republican Ashley Swearengin defeated her Democrat opponent for the open Mayor’s office despite a huge push by local labor unions.
The California Republican Party maximized its support for its federal, state and local candidates by adapting its statewide Victory program to emphasize not just the top of the ticket, but downticket candidates as well. Voter guides featured Republicans from President and Congress down to Assenbly, Senate and local candidates. Voter ID and turnout calls were tailored to specific state and local candidate needs.
The state party even maxed out to Congressional target candidates Tom McClintock, Dana Rohrabacher and Dean Andal directly and with coordinated expenditures.
While voter registration trends are concerning for both major parties, the numbers in California are consistent with a national trend favoring the Democrat and independent categories we have seen in the 29 states with registration by party.
Going forward, it’s critically important that our party provide a positive, alternative vision to where Barack Obama and the Democrats plan to take the country. Additionally, we must develop an entirely new blueprint for competing in suburban and urban areas by translating our principles into solid issues with real benefits to the everyday lives of those we seek to represent, and delivering those messages with more effective voter contact techniques blending better use of technology with more personal contact.
When Gray Davis won his second term in 2002, the pundits made all the usual pronouncements about the death of our party, only to have a Republican back in the Governor’s office a year later. They sounded just like liberals in the media following Bill Clinton’s 1992 win, only to have Newt Gingrich in the Speaker’s chair by the end of the next cycle.
Our advice to the Democrats is this: rent, don’t buy, because just as was the case in 1993 and 2002, the Republican comeback begins now.